On the egde of nuclear war

Give me, God, the Romanian’s mind of the experienced one
Romanian proverb

North Korea is very close from a tragic end. There are two sources for this: the economic disaster and the nuclear weapons developing.

The economic disaster is coming to an end. And not a happy one! China can’t sustain forever North Koreea. Other sources for North-Korean economy cannot be found, especially in the middle of the struggle for North-korean nuclear weapons development. The only exit from the crisis is for Kim Jong-un seems to be the same as in the past: some war threats, cooled down by some western humanitarian help. But this exist is close now, and North-Korean leadership seems to not have the power to understand this.
Why?
Why is this exit close now?
Why the North-Korean leadership don’t get it?

Well, the war threat was an crisis exit as long as the big danger was a local war with many causalities. For avoiding it both USA and South-Korea had a disponibility in closing there eyes to North-Korean insolence and give it some help.

But now North Korea is closer and closer to the point that it would be a nuclear threat for any neighbor, even for far-away countries like the USA.
This is something that not only USA or Russia, but even China can not accept it. Existence of efficient nuclear weapons in North Korea mean a deadly danger for any country around it, for any country that could be hit with it. And this is not to be tolerated.
That’s why at this level of its nuclear project North Korea can not use anymore of the war threats like an exit from the crisis.
The nuclear responsibility, the danger of a nuclear war, is too big to be used this way. This is far too childish, and such an irresponsible leadership can not be allowed to have a nuclear arsenal.

So, at first glance, it seems that still it’s an easy way to get out of this situation:
and a North-Korean nuclear disarmament program, negotiated with the USA, South Korea, China and Russia, in exchange for humanitarian support and a graduated release of embargo.
Yes, this is a way out of the crisis.
But, as I said, the North Korean leadership just did not get it!
Why?
Because North Korea is really far from understanding the gap between a nuke and a mid or long-range carrying missile and the real level of modern weaponry.
The truth is that North Korean nuclear technology and its carrying missiles are at the level of the second half of the last century. It can do a lot of damage, but only if all the radars and satellites of the target country are closed. Because today USA, Russia and China have new interception technologies that make impossible any accurate hit with that kind of old technology that North Korea is using. Any eventual nuclear missile launched by North Korea it will be destroyed on his territory or very close to it. And, obviously, nobody will let North Korea to develop it’s military technology even further.
This is the truth the North Korean leadership can not accept. And the „solution” is to develop a better missile, and a better one, and a better one, hoping it will do the trick.
But who will let this happen?
Surely, not USA, not Russia, not even China.

Of course, some people will think that the pride of the North-Korean leadership can suffer because of the own citizens interpretations about the Government’s step back in the nuclear weapons program. This is an illusion. The people of North Korea will take as truth what the Government will tell. For example, that „the great love of peace and harmony make the leadership to decide a wise nuclear disarmament”. The people will cry full of joy for the wisdom of the Government and for the bread that will come.

So, not the people form North Korea is the problem in this matter (even it suffers and it will suffer even more in the future for this).
The real problem is that the North-Korean Government really don’t understand the huge difference between theirs technology and the actual military technology. They had struggle so much for reaching this point that they can’t see that the others are with decades of research, innovations and discoveries away from that level.
If the China, USA or Russia don’t find a way to make the North-Korean leadership to understand this, the war will come. A nuclear war that will hit the North-Korean military points – nuclear or not. It will be a disaster. But a smaller one than the alternative of a nuclear war started by North Korea. It’s a hard choice if we look at the North-Korean people and think at the burden that it is and that it will be on him. But it’s a easy choice if we look at billions of people around North Korea that are threaten by the nuclear program of this country.
It’s very sad anyway, and we can just pray for peace.

Mihai-Andrei Aldea

Un gând despre “On the egde of nuclear war

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